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Grant support

This research was funded by the Spanish Ministerio de Economia, Industria y Competitividad (MINECO), the Agencia Estatal de Investigacion (AEI) and Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (FEDER UE) grant MTM2017-89664-P and the European Union through the Operational Program of the [European Regional Development Fund (ERDF)/European Social Fund (ESF)] of the Valencian Community 2014-2020. Files: GJIDI/2018/A/010 and GJIDI/2018/A/009 and the Ramon Areces Foundation, Madrid, Spain (CIVP18A3920).

Analysis of institutional authors

Sferle, Sorina-MAuthorVillanueva, Rafael-JCorresponding Author

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Article

Modeling COVID-19 with Uncertainty in Granada, Spain. Intra-Hospitalary Circuit and Expectations over the Next Months

Publicated to:Mathematics. 9 (10): 1132- - 2021-05-01 9(10), DOI: 10.3390/math9101132

Authors: Garrido, Jose M; Martinez-Rodriguez, David; Rodriguez-Serrano, Fernando; Sferle, Sorina-M; Villanueva, Rafael-J

Affiliations

Biosanit Res Inst Granada ibsGRANADA, Granada 18016, Spain - Author
Univ Granada, Dept Surg & Surg Specialties, Granada 18016, Spain - Author
Univ Granada, Inst Biopathol & Regenerat Med IBIMER, Granada 18016, Spain - Author
Univ Politecn Valencia, Inst Univ Matemat Multidisciplinar, Valencia 46022, Spain - Author

Abstract

Mathematical models have been remarkable tools for knowing in advance the appropriate time to enforce population restrictions and distribute hospital resources. Here, we present a mathematical Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model to study the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Granada, Spain, taking into account the uncertainty of the phenomenon. In the model, the patients moving throughout the hospital's departments (intra-hospitalary circuit) are considered in order to help to optimize the use of a hospital's resources in the future. Two main seasons, September-April (autumn-winter) and May-August (summer), where the hospital pressure is significantly different, have been included. The model is calibrated and validated with data obtained from the hospitals in Granada. Possible future scenarios have been simulated. The model is able to capture the history of the pandemic in Granada. It provides predictions about the intra-hospitalary COVID-19 circuit over time and shows that the number of infected is expected to decline continuously from May without an increase next autumn-winter if population measures continue to be satisfied. The model strongly suggests that the number of infected cases will reduce rapidly with aggressive vaccination policies. The proposed study is being used in Granada to design public health policies and perform wise re-distribution of hospital resources in advance.

Keywords

Covid waveCovid wavesCovid-19DynamicEpidemicFacemasksHospital's resourcesInfluenzaMask useMathematical modelSpreadTransmission dynamicsVaccination expectations

Quality index

Bibliometric impact. Analysis of the contribution and dissemination channel

The work has been published in the journal Mathematics due to its progression and the good impact it has achieved in recent years, according to the agency WoS (JCR), it has become a reference in its field. In the year of publication of the work, 2021, it was in position 21/333, thus managing to position itself as a Q1 (Primer Cuartil), in the category Mathematics. Notably, the journal is positioned above the 90th percentile.

Independientemente del impacto esperado determinado por el canal de difusión, es importante destacar el impacto real observado de la propia aportación.

Según las diferentes agencias de indexación, el número de citas acumuladas por esta publicación hasta la fecha 2025-06-20:

  • Google Scholar: 2
  • WoS: 2
  • Scopus: 2
  • OpenCitations: 2

Impact and social visibility

From the perspective of influence or social adoption, and based on metrics associated with mentions and interactions provided by agencies specializing in calculating the so-called "Alternative or Social Metrics," we can highlight as of 2025-06-20:

  • The use, from an academic perspective evidenced by the Altmetric agency indicator referring to aggregations made by the personal bibliographic manager Mendeley, gives us a total of: 9.
  • The use of this contribution in bookmarks, code forks, additions to favorite lists for recurrent reading, as well as general views, indicates that someone is using the publication as a basis for their current work. This may be a notable indicator of future more formal and academic citations. This claim is supported by the result of the "Capture" indicator, which yields a total of: 9 (PlumX).

With a more dissemination-oriented intent and targeting more general audiences, we can observe other more global scores such as:

  • The Total Score from Altmetric: 0.25.
  • The number of mentions on the social network X (formerly Twitter): 1 (Altmetric).

It is essential to present evidence supporting full alignment with institutional principles and guidelines on Open Science and the Conservation and Dissemination of Intellectual Heritage. A clear example of this is:

  • The work has been submitted to a journal whose editorial policy allows open Open Access publication.
  • Assignment of a Handle/URN as an identifier within the deposit in the Institutional Repository: http://hdl.handle.net/10251/181024

Leadership analysis of institutional authors

There is a significant leadership presence as some of the institution’s authors appear as the first or last signer, detailed as follows: Last Author (Villanueva Micó, Rafael Jacinto).

the author responsible for correspondence tasks has been Villanueva Micó, Rafael Jacinto.