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Analysis of institutional authors

Trull, OCorresponding AuthorGarcía-Díaz, JcAuthor

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Initialization Methods for Multiple Seasonal Holt-Winters Forecasting Models

Publicated to:Mathematics. 8 (2): 268- - 2020-02-01 8(2), DOI: 10.3390/math8020268

Authors: Trull, Oscar; Carlos Garcia-Diaz, Juan; Troncoso, Alicia

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Abstract

The Holt-Winters models are one of the most popular forecasting algorithms. As well-known, these models are recursive and thus, an initialization value is needed to feed the model, being that a proper initialization of the Holt-Winters models is crucial for obtaining a good accuracy of the predictions. Moreover, the introduction of multiple seasonal Holt-Winters models requires a new development of methods for seed initialization and obtaining initial values. This work proposes new initialization methods based on the adaptation of the traditional methods developed for a single seasonality in order to include multiple seasonalities. Thus, new methods to initialize the level, trend, and seasonality in multiple seasonal Holt-Winters models are presented. These new methods are tested with an application for electricity demand in Spain and analyzed for their impact on the accuracy of forecasts. As a consequence of the analysis carried out, which initialization method to use for the level, trend, and seasonality in multiple seasonal Holt-Winters models with an additive and multiplicative trend is provided.

Keywords

ForecastingHolt-wintersInitializationMultiple seasonal periodsTime-seriesValues

Quality index

Bibliometric impact. Analysis of the contribution and dissemination channel

The work has been published in the journal Mathematics due to its progression and the good impact it has achieved in recent years, according to the agency WoS (JCR), it has become a reference in its field. In the year of publication of the work, 2020, it was in position 24/330, thus managing to position itself as a Q1 (Primer Cuartil), in the category Mathematics. Notably, the journal is positioned above the 90th percentile.

From a relative perspective, and based on the normalized impact indicator calculated from World Citations provided by WoS (ESI, Clarivate), it yields a value for the citation normalization relative to the expected citation rate of: 6.84. This indicates that, compared to works in the same discipline and in the same year of publication, it ranks as a work cited above average. (source consulted: ESI Nov 14, 2024)

This information is reinforced by other indicators of the same type, which, although dynamic over time and dependent on the set of average global citations at the time of their calculation, consistently position the work at some point among the top 50% most cited in its field:

  • Weighted Average of Normalized Impact by the Scopus agency: 5.07 (source consulted: FECYT Feb 2024)

Specifically, and according to different indexing agencies, this work has accumulated citations as of 2025-06-06, the following number of citations:

  • WoS: 34
  • Scopus: 37
  • OpenCitations: 36

Impact and social visibility

From the perspective of influence or social adoption, and based on metrics associated with mentions and interactions provided by agencies specializing in calculating the so-called "Alternative or Social Metrics," we can highlight as of 2025-06-06:

  • The use, from an academic perspective evidenced by the Altmetric agency indicator referring to aggregations made by the personal bibliographic manager Mendeley, gives us a total of: 86.
  • The use of this contribution in bookmarks, code forks, additions to favorite lists for recurrent reading, as well as general views, indicates that someone is using the publication as a basis for their current work. This may be a notable indicator of future more formal and academic citations. This claim is supported by the result of the "Capture" indicator, which yields a total of: 84 (PlumX).

With a more dissemination-oriented intent and targeting more general audiences, we can observe other more global scores such as:

  • The Total Score from Altmetric: 10.5.
  • The number of mentions on the social network X (formerly Twitter): 3 (Altmetric).

It is essential to present evidence supporting full alignment with institutional principles and guidelines on Open Science and the Conservation and Dissemination of Intellectual Heritage. A clear example of this is:

  • The work has been submitted to a journal whose editorial policy allows open Open Access publication.
  • Assignment of a Handle/URN as an identifier within the deposit in the Institutional Repository: http://hdl.handle.net/10251/162104

Leadership analysis of institutional authors

There is a significant leadership presence as some of the institution’s authors appear as the first or last signer, detailed as follows: First Author (TRULL DOMÍNGUEZ, OSCAR) .

the author responsible for correspondence tasks has been TRULL DOMÍNGUEZ, OSCAR.