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Aranda, JaCorresponding AuthorGarcía-Bartual, RAuthor

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October 31, 2024
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Article

Synthetic Hydrographs Generation Downstream of a River Junction Using a Copula Approach for Hydrological Risk Assessment in Large Dams

Publicated to: Water. 10 (11): 1570-1589 - 2018-01-01 10(11), DOI: 10.3390/w10111570

Authors:

Aranda Domingo, José Ángel; García-Bartual, Rafael
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Affiliations

Univ Politecn Valencia, Hydraul & Environm Engn - Author

Abstract

Peak flows values (Q) and hydrograph volumes (V) are obtained from a selected family of historical flood events (period 1957-2017), for two neighboring mountain catchments located in the Ebro river basin, Spain: rivers Esera and Isabena. Barasona dam is located downstream of the river junction. The peaks over threshold (POT) method is used for a univariate frequency analysis performed for both variables, Q and V, comparing several suitable distribution functions. Extreme value copulas families have been applied to model the bivariate distribution (Q, V) for each of the rivers. Several goodness-of-fit tests were used to assess the applicability of the selected copulas. A similar copula approach was carried out to model the dependence between peak flows of both rivers. Based on the above-mentioned statistical analysis, a Monte Carlo simulation of synthetic design flood hydrographs (DFH) downstream of the river junction is performed. A gamma-type theoretical pattern is assumed for partial hydrographs. The resulting synthetic hydrographs at the Barasona reservoir are finally obtained accounting for flow peak time lag, also described in statistical terms. A 50,000 hydrographs ensemble was generated, preserving statistical properties of marginal distributions as well as statistical dependence between variables. The proposed method provides an efficient and practical modeling framework for the hydrological risk assessment of the dam, improving the basis for the optimal management of such infrastructure.
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Keywords

CatchmentCatchmentsConditional copulaDamDesignDesign floodDistribution functionsEbro riverExtreme valueExtreme value copulaFloodFlood controlFlood frequencyFlood frequency analysisFlood hydrographFlood hydrographsFloodsFrequency analysisHydrographHydrographsIntelligent systemsMonte carlo methodsNonparametric-estimationPeak flowProbabilityReservoirReservoirs (water)Risk assessmentRiver confluenceRiver systemRiversSpainSynthetic hydrographsTail-dependence coefficientThreshold

Quality index

Bibliometric impact. Analysis of the contribution and dissemination channel

The work has been published in the journal Water due to its progression and the good impact it has achieved in recent years, according to the agency Scopus (SJR), it has become a reference in its field. In the year of publication of the work, 2018, it was in position , thus managing to position itself as a Q1 (Primer Cuartil), in the category Geography, Planning and Development.

Independientemente del impacto esperado determinado por el canal de difusión, es importante destacar el impacto real observado de la propia aportación.

Según las diferentes agencias de indexación, el número de citas acumuladas por esta publicación hasta la fecha 2026-04-04:

  • WoS: 8
  • Scopus: 9
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Impact and social visibility

From the perspective of influence or social adoption, and based on metrics associated with mentions and interactions provided by agencies specializing in calculating the so-called "Alternative or Social Metrics," we can highlight as of 2026-04-04:

  • The use, from an academic perspective evidenced by the Altmetric agency indicator referring to aggregations made by the personal bibliographic manager Mendeley, gives us a total of: 31.
  • The use of this contribution in bookmarks, code forks, additions to favorite lists for recurrent reading, as well as general views, indicates that someone is using the publication as a basis for their current work. This may be a notable indicator of future more formal and academic citations. This claim is supported by the result of the "Capture" indicator, which yields a total of: 31 (PlumX).

With a more dissemination-oriented intent and targeting more general audiences, we can observe other more global scores such as:

  • The Total Score from Altmetric: 1.

It is essential to present evidence supporting full alignment with institutional principles and guidelines on Open Science and the Conservation and Dissemination of Intellectual Heritage. A clear example of this is:

  • The work has been submitted to a journal whose editorial policy allows open Open Access publication.
  • Assignment of a Handle/URN as an identifier within the deposit in the Institutional Repository: http://hdl.handle.net/10251/121098
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Leadership analysis of institutional authors

There is a significant leadership presence as some of the institution’s authors appear as the first or last signer, detailed as follows: First Author (Aranda Domingo, José Ángel) and Last Author (García Bartual, Rafael Luis).

the author responsible for correspondence tasks has been Aranda Domingo, José Ángel.

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