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November 24, 2024
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Article

Meteorological factors, population immunity, and COVID-19 incidence: A global multi-city analysis

Publicated to: ENVIRONMENTAL EPIDEMIOLOGY. 8 (6): e338- - 2024-12-01 8(6), DOI: 10.1097/EE9.0000000000000338

Authors:

Feurer, D; Riffe, T; Kniffka, MS; Acosta, E; Armstrong, B; Mistry, M; Lowe, R; Roye, D; Hashizume, M; Madaniyazi, L; Ng, CFS; Tobias, A; Iñiguez, C; Vicedo-Cabrera, AM; Ragettli, MS; Lavigne, E; Correa, PM; Ortega, NV; Kysely, J; Urban, A; Orru, H; Indermitte, E; Maasikmets, M; Dallavalle, M; Schneider, A; Honda, Y; Alahmad, B; Zanobetti, A; Schwartz, J; Carrasco, G; Holobaca, IH; Kim, H; Lee, WH; Bell, ML; Scovronick, N; Acquaotta, F; Coélho, MDZS; Diaz, MH; Arellano, EEF; Michelozzi, P; Stafoggia, M; de'Donato, F; Rao, S; Di Ruscio, F; Seposo, X; Guo, YM; Tong, SL; Masselot, P; Gasparrini, A; Sera, F
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Affiliations

Babes Bolyai Univ, Fac Geog, Cluj Napoca, Romania - Author
Barcelona Supercomp Ctr BSC, Barcelona, Spain - Author
Ca Foscari Univ Venice, Dept Econ, Venice, Italy - Author
Catalan Inst Res & Adv Studies ICREA, Barcelona, Spain - Author
China CDC, Natl Inst Environm Hlth, Beijing, Peoples R China - Author
CIBERESP, Madrid, Spain - Author
Climate Res Fdn FIC, Madrid, Spain - Author
Ctr Estudis Demog, Bellaterra, Spain - Author
Czech Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Prague, Czech Republic - Author
Czech Univ Life Sci Prague, Fac Environm Sci, Prague, Czech Republic - Author
Emory Univ, Rollins Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Environm Hlth, Atlanta, GA USA - Author
Estonian Environm Res Ctr, Tallinn, Estonia - Author
Hanyang Univ, Seoul 04763, South Korea - Author
Harvard Univ, Harvard TH Chan Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Environm Hlth, Boston, MA USA - Author
Helmholtz Zent Munchen, Inst Epidemiol, German Res Ctr Environm Hlth GmbH, D-85764 Neuherberg, Germany - Author
Hlth Canada, Environm Hlth Sci & Res Bur, Ottawa, ON, Canada - Author
Hokkaido Univ, Grad Sch Med, Dept Hyg, Sapporo, Hokkaido, Japan - Author
Ikerbasque Basque Fdn Sci, Bilbao, Spain - Author
Lazio Reg Hlth Serv, Dept Epidemiol, Rome, Italy - Author
London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Ctr Climate Change & Planetary Hlth, London, England - Author
London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Ctr Math Modelling Infect Dis, London, England - Author
London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Dept Publ Hlth Environm & Soc, Environm & Hlth Modelling EHM Lab, London, England - Author
London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Dept Publ Hlth Environm & Soc, London, England - Author
Max Planck Inst Demog Res, Rostock, Germany - Author
Monash Univ, Sch Publ Hlth & Prevent Med, Climate Air Qual Res Unit, Melbourne, Australia - Author
Monash Univ, Sch Publ Hlth & Prevent Med, Dept Epidemiol & Prevent Med, Melbourne, Australia - Author
Nagasaki Univ, Sch Trop Med & Global Hlth, Nagasaki, Japan - Author
Natl Inst Environm Studies, Ctr Climate Change Adaptat, Tsukuba, Japan - Author
Natl Inst Publ Hlth, Environm Hlth Dept, Cuernavaca 62100, Morelos, Mexico - Author
Norwegian Inst Publ Hlth, Oslo, Norway - Author
Pusan Natl Univ, Sch Biomed Convergence Engn, Pusan, South Korea - Author
Queensland Univ Technol, Sch Publ Hlth & Social Work, Brisbane, Australia - Author
Seoul Natl Univ, Inst Hlth & Environm, Grad Sch Publ Hlth, Seoul, South Korea - Author
Seoul Natl Univ, Inst Hlth & Environm, Seoul, South Korea - Author
Spanish Council Sci Res CSIC, Inst Environm Assessment & Water Res IDAEA, E-08034 Barcelona, Spain - Author
Swiss Trop & Publ Hlth Inst, Allschwil, Switzerland - Author
Univ Basel, Basel, Switzerland - Author
Univ Bern, Inst Social & Prevent Med, Bern, Switzerland - Author
Univ Bern, Oeschger Ctr Climate Change Res, Bern, Switzerland - Author
Univ Florence, Dept Stat Comp Sci & Applicat G Parenti, Florence, Italy - Author
Univ Los Andes, Dept Publ Hlth & Biostat, Santiago, Chile - Author
Univ Ottawa, Fac Med, Sch Epidemiol & Publ Hlth, Ottawa, ON, Canada - Author
Univ Padua, Interdept Res Ctr Geomat CIRGEO, Padua, Italy - Author
Univ Padua, Unit Biostat Epidemiol & Publ Hlth, Padua, Italy - Author
Univ Pais Vasco UPV EHU, Leioa, Spain - Author
Univ Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Inst Med Trop Alexander von Humboldt, Lima, Peru - Author
Univ Politecn Valencia, Dept Stat & Operat Res, Valencia, Spain - Author
Univ Rostock, Rostock, Germany - Author
Univ Sao Paulo, Inst Adv Studies, Sao Paulo, Brazil - Author
Univ Tartu, Inst Family Med & Publ Hlth, Tartu, Estonia - Author
Univ Tokyo, Grad Sch Med, Dept Global Hlth Policy, Tokyo, Japan - Author
Univ Torino, Earth Sci Dept, I-10125 Turin, Italy - Author
Univ Tsukuba, Fac Hlth & Sport Sci, Tsukuba, Japan - Author
Yale Univ, Sch Environm, New Haven, CT USA - Author
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Abstract

Objectives:While COVID-19 continues to challenge the world, meteorological variables are thought to impact COVID-19 transmission. Previous studies showed evidence of negative associations between high temperature and absolute humidity on COVID-19 transmission. Our research aims to fill the knowledge gap on the modifying effect of vaccination rates and strains on the weather-COVID-19 association.Methods:Our study included COVID-19 data from 439 cities in 22 countries spanning 3 February 2020 - 31 August 2022 and meteorological variables (temperature, relative humidity, absolute humidity, solar radiation, and precipitation). We used a two-stage time-series design to assess the association between meteorological factors and COVID-19 incidence. For the exposure modeling, we used distributed lag nonlinear models with a lag of up to 14 days. Finally, we pooled the estimates using a random effect meta-analytic model and tested vaccination rates and dominant strains as possible effect modifiers.Results:Our results showed an association between temperature and absolute humidity on COVID-19 transmission. At 5 degrees C, the relative risk of COVID-19 incidence is 1.22-fold higher compared to a reference level at 17 degrees C. Correlated with temperature, we observed an inverse association for absolute humidity. We observed a tendency of increased risk on days without precipitation, but no association for relative humidity and solar radiation. No interaction between vaccination rates or strains on the weather-COVID-19 association was observed.Conclusions:This study strengthens previous evidence of a relationship of temperature and absolute humidity with COVID-19 incidence. Furthermore, no evidence was found that vaccinations and strains significantly modify the relationship between environmental factors and COVID-19 transmission.
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Keywords

Covid-19Distributed lag nonlinear modelHumidityMulti-country multi-city collaborative research networkPrecipitationSolar radiationTemperatureTime-series design

Quality index

Bibliometric impact. Analysis of the contribution and dissemination channel

The work has been published in the journal ENVIRONMENTAL EPIDEMIOLOGY due to its progression and the good impact it has achieved in recent years, according to the agency WoS (JCR), it has become a reference in its field. In the year of publication of the work, 2024 there are still no calculated indicators, but in 2023, it was in position 65/421, thus managing to position itself as a Q1 (Primer Cuartil), in the category Public, Environmental & Occupational Health.

Independientemente del impacto esperado determinado por el canal de difusión, es importante destacar el impacto real observado de la propia aportación.

Según las diferentes agencias de indexación, el número de citas acumuladas por esta publicación hasta la fecha 2026-04-06:

  • WoS: 4
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Impact and social visibility

From the perspective of influence or social adoption, and based on metrics associated with mentions and interactions provided by agencies specializing in calculating the so-called "Alternative or Social Metrics," we can highlight as of 2026-04-06:

  • The use, from an academic perspective evidenced by the Altmetric agency indicator referring to aggregations made by the personal bibliographic manager Mendeley, gives us a total of: 4.
  • The use of this contribution in bookmarks, code forks, additions to favorite lists for recurrent reading, as well as general views, indicates that someone is using the publication as a basis for their current work. This may be a notable indicator of future more formal and academic citations. This claim is supported by the result of the "Capture" indicator, which yields a total of: 4 (PlumX).

With a more dissemination-oriented intent and targeting more general audiences, we can observe other more global scores such as:

  • The Total Score from Altmetric: 1.
  • The number of mentions on the social network Facebook: 1 (Altmetric).
  • The number of mentions on the social network X (formerly Twitter): 1 (Altmetric).

It is essential to present evidence supporting full alignment with institutional principles and guidelines on Open Science and the Conservation and Dissemination of Intellectual Heritage. A clear example of this is:

  • The work has been submitted to a journal whose editorial policy allows open Open Access publication.
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Leadership analysis of institutional authors

This work has been carried out with international collaboration, specifically with researchers from: Australia; Brazil; Canada; Chile; China; Czech Republic; Estonia; Germany; Italy; Japan; Mexico; Norway; Oman; Peru; Republic of Korea; Switzerland; United Kingdom; United States of America.

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Awards linked to the item

D.F. acknowledges funding from the European Union-Next Generation EU through the project of national interest (PRIN) "Geo-Intelligence for improved air quality monitoring and analysis (GeoAIr)" 202258ACSL. F.S. was supported by the Italian Ministry of University and Research, Department of Excellence project 2023-2027 ReDS "Rethinking Data Science" - Department of Statistics, Computer Science and Applications-University of Florence. A.M.V.C. acknowledges funding from the Swiss National Science Foundation (TMSGI3_211626). R.L. acknowledges a Royal Society Hodgkin Fellowship and the European Union's Horizon Europe research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 101057554 (Horizon Europe project IDAlert, https://idalertproject.eu). IDAlert is part of the EU climate change and health cluster (https://climate-health.eu). A.U. and J.K. were supported by the Czech Science Foundation [22-24920S].
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