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Lopez-Ballesteros, AdrianAuthor

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November 20, 2025
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Article

Coupling SWAT+, GOTM-WET, and LSTM to predict daily DO in Mar Menor

Publicated to: Results In Engineering. 28 107907- - 2025-12-01 28(), DOI: 10.1016/j.rineng.2025.107907

Authors:

Asadi, S; Pacheco, JP; Ladwig, R; López-Ballesteros, A; Mesman, JP; Jimeno-Sáez, P; Senent-Aparicio, J
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Affiliations

Aarhus Univ, Dept Ecosci, DK-8000 Aarhus, Denmark - Author
Catholic Univ San Antonio, Dept Civil Engn, Campus Jeronimos s n, Murcia 30107, Spain - Author
Ctr Invest Desertificac, Consejo Super Invest Cient CIDE, CSIC UV GV, Carretera Moncada Naquera,km 10, Moncada 46113, Valencia, Spain - Author
Sino Danish Ctr Educ & Res SDC, Beijing 101407, Peoples R China - Author
Univ Politecn Valencia, Dept Comp Engn, Camino Vera S-N, Valencia 46022, Spain - Author
Uppsala Univ, Dept Ecol & Genet, Limnol, Norbyvagen 18D, Uppsala S-75236, Sweden - Author
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Abstract

Accurate dissolved oxygen (DO) modelling is crucial to better understand the drivers and timing of oxygen declines, supporting early warning and mitigation strategies. This study aims to predict DO dynamics by integrating hydrological and aquatic ecosystem modelling with advanced deep learning techniques based on Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. We focus on the Mar Menor lagoon in southern Spain, an ecosystem of high ecological and socioeconomic importance, where oxygen depletion events have caused massive fish kills with significant impacts on fisheries and tourism. We simulated 20 years (2003 - 2023) daily hydrological dynamics using SWAT+ model for Mar Menor catchment, generating discharge, nutrients and sediments outputs. These were used as inputs for GOTM-WET lagoon model, which produced daily and hourly outputs of key biogeochemical variables, with DO predictions focused on the deepest layer (6.5 m). We pre-trained an LSTM model to predict DO using combinations of meteorological data, SWAT+, and GOTM-WET outputs as inputs, using the GOTM-WET DO output as targets for model pre-training to overcome the limited availability of observed data. The model was then fine-tuned with weekly DO observed data. SHAP analysis identified water temperature, density, and macrophyte dry weight as key DO predictors. The model performance improved substantially after fine-tuning, with R2 increasing from 0.59 to 0.77 and RMSE dropping from 0.89 to 0.49 mg/L, outperforming the GOTM-WET baseline (R2 = 0.45, RMSE = 1.03 mg/L). These results highlight the potential of coupled hydrological and aquatic ecosystem modelling with advanced deep learning techniques to enhance DO modelling.
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Keywords

CalibrationCoupled modellingDo concentrationDynamicsEvapotranspirationGotm-wetHypoxiaImpactLakeLstmMar menor lagoonOxygen depletionPhosphorusSeSustainability

Quality index

Bibliometric impact. Analysis of the contribution and dissemination channel

The work has been published in the journal Results in Engineering due to its progression and the good impact it has achieved in recent years, according to the agency WoS (JCR), it has become a reference in its field. In the year of publication of the work, 2025, it was in position 6/179, thus managing to position itself as a Q1 (Primer Cuartil), in the category Engineering, Multidisciplinary. Notably, the journal is positioned above the 90th percentile.

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Impact and social visibility

From the perspective of influence or social adoption, and based on metrics associated with mentions and interactions provided by agencies specializing in calculating the so-called "Alternative or Social Metrics," we can highlight as of 2026-04-03:

  • The use of this contribution in bookmarks, code forks, additions to favorite lists for recurrent reading, as well as general views, indicates that someone is using the publication as a basis for their current work. This may be a notable indicator of future more formal and academic citations. This claim is supported by the result of the "Capture" indicator, which yields a total of: 10 (PlumX).

It is essential to present evidence supporting full alignment with institutional principles and guidelines on Open Science and the Conservation and Dissemination of Intellectual Heritage. A clear example of this is:

  • The work has been submitted to a journal whose editorial policy allows open Open Access publication.
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Leadership analysis of institutional authors

This work has been carried out with international collaboration, specifically with researchers from: China; Denmark; Sweden.

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Awards linked to the item

This work is part of the ThinkInAzul project supported by Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovacion y Universidades with funding from European Union NextGenerationEU (PRTR-C17.I1) and by Comunidad Autonoma de la Region de Murcia-Fundacion Seneca. Adrian Lopez-Ballesteros acknowledges the financial support received from the Juan de la Cierva Postdoc Spanish Program (JDC2023-050965-I) .
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