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Analysis of institutional authors

Sarabia-Escriva, Emilio-JoseAuthorSoto-Frances, Victor-ManuelAuthor

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February 4, 2026
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Assessment of the thermal energy demand of Spain's residential building stock under future climate scenarios

Publicated to: ENERGY AND BUILDINGS. 354 116995- - 2026-03-01 354(), DOI: 10.1016/j.enbuild.2026.116995

Authors:

Jimenez-Navarro, Juan-Pablo; Sarabia-Escriva, Emilio-Jose; Soto-Frances, Victor-Manuel; Pinazo-Ojer, Jose-Manuel
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Affiliations

Univ Malaga, Dept Mech Thermal & Fluids Engn, Res Energy Syst RESUMA, Calle Arquitecto Francisco Penalosa 6, Malaga 29071, Spain - Author
Univ Politecn Valencia, Termodinam Aplicada, Valencia 46022, Spain - Author

Abstract

This study uses a bottom-up model of over 200,000 cases to assess Spain's residential building stock under future climate scenarios for the years 2050 and 2080 (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5), aiming to inform the critical need for climate adaptation planning in the building sector. The novelty of our approach lies in the simultaneous comparison of real, sensible energy demand (free-running simulation) against the official, restrictive energy certification procedure, an approach not previously performed for the entire Spanish stock. The analysis yields two major contributions that challenge current policy. First, we observe a significant shift in energy use: cooling demand surges-doubling by 2080 in vulnerable areas-while heating demand declines, resulting in a net change to total final energy demand of less than 4% across all scenarios. Second, Spain's current energy certification procedure underestimates 2022 total demand by approximately 5%, primarily by underestimating cooling needs by 18%, a discrepancy that will worsen with climate change. As a result, it fails to capture real discomfort, especially in summer. A key policy insight is that retrofitting the entire stock to current building code (CTE) U-values would halve total demand and cap future cooling at today's levels. The Mediterranean region, with half the national stock, is most at risk, facing cooling demand increases of up to 138%. Therefore, a national strategy must prioritize retrofitting the oldest single-family homes in southern Mediterranean areas.
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Keywords

Building energy certificationBuilding energy efficiencyClimate changeCooling demandDecarbonisation of building stocksEnergy performance of buildingsHeating demand

Quality index

Bibliometric impact. Analysis of the contribution and dissemination channel

The work has been published in the journal ENERGY AND BUILDINGS due to its progression and the good impact it has achieved in recent years, according to the agency WoS (JCR), it has become a reference in its field. In the year of publication of the work, 2026, it was in position 12/184, thus managing to position itself as a Q1 (Primer Cuartil), in the category Engineering, Civil.

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Impact and social visibility

From the perspective of influence or social adoption, and based on metrics associated with mentions and interactions provided by agencies specializing in calculating the so-called "Alternative or Social Metrics," we can highlight as of 2026-04-04:

  • The use of this contribution in bookmarks, code forks, additions to favorite lists for recurrent reading, as well as general views, indicates that someone is using the publication as a basis for their current work. This may be a notable indicator of future more formal and academic citations. This claim is supported by the result of the "Capture" indicator, which yields a total of: 12 (PlumX).

With a more dissemination-oriented intent and targeting more general audiences, we can observe other more global scores such as:

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    Leadership analysis of institutional authors

    There is a significant leadership presence as some of the institution’s authors appear as the first or last signer, detailed as follows: Last Author (Pinazo-Ojer, Jose-Manuel).

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